The lesson here is that unless you have a crystal ball, you should remain invested. This year is no exception. If you were not invested in January and November, your performance so far this year would be negative.

Then the US commerce department just released Q3 GDP growth figures at 4.9%. The growth was supported by continued consumption despite dwindling savings rates, residential investments despite high mortgages, and government spending in the context of ongoing debt ceiling issues.

The September effect (market inefficiency, whereby the month of September is statistically a down month) was quite evident this year, with the global market down -4.45% in dollar terms.

July was a great month for stock markets, investors concluded that due to positive economic surprises and earnings, paired with a significant decrease in inflation figures year-on-year, a soft-landing scenario was more likely and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) helped lift performance.

We have said over the months that June would show the biggest drop in inflation from a base effect. That happened and it left investors confident about the Fed’s next move.